Lyndy van den Barselaar | Managing Director | ManpowerGroup South Africa | mail me |
South Africa is entering what I call a leadership blackout, a slow but unmistakable dimming of the leadership pipeline that many organisations have not yet fully acknowledged. What makes this moment so unusual is that the crisis is not being driven by a lack of talent. It is being driven by a lack of desire.
The people who should be stepping into leadership roles are increasingly choosing not to, and the reasons behind that choice reveal a profound shift in how work, ambition and wellbeing are understood.
The phenomenon of future leaders missing in action
South Africa is entering a leadership blackout, and many organisations still fail to fully acknowledge it. This moment feels unusual because talent does not drive the crisis. Instead, desire drives it. Increasingly, the people expected to step into leadership roles choose not to. This trend signals a deeper shift in how work, ambition and wellbeing now function.
The phenomenon of future leaders missing in action is already visible in many organisations. It reflects a widening gap between leadership demand and leadership willingness. At the same time, it signals a structural problem in how organisations design leadership pathways.
According to our latest Human Edge Trends Report, companies worldwide face a similar pattern. Younger workers do not feel inspired by the leadership roles they observe. In South Africa, this reluctance appears even stronger. Economic pressure, workplace fatigue and structural inequality intensify the problem. Here, the leadership pipeline is not empty. Instead, it reflects a pattern of opting out. In many cases, future leaders missing in action describes the lived reality inside organisations rather than a theoretical concern.
A new psychology of ambition
For decades, organisations framed leadership as the natural next step for high performers. It functioned as a reward for hard work and as a marker of progress. It also signalled upward mobility in a traditional career ladder. However, this framing no longer holds for many Millennials and Gen Z professionals. They do not reject growth itself. Instead, they reject the version of leadership they observe in practice. They often see leadership as a trade-off between advancement and personal wellbeing.
This shift unfolds in a labour market defined by instability. The latest Stats SA figures place youth unemployment at 43.8%. In addition, 3.7 million South Africans now fall under discouraged work seekers. When uncertainty shapes economic reality, leadership appears less like a reward.
Instead, leadership becomes a risk. It brings pressure without guaranteed protection. In this context, I often tell clients, “Leadership has not lost its importance; it has lost its appeal”. At the same time, future leaders are missing in action, reflecting how ambition now reroutes into alternative career paths.
A leadership model that no longer fits the moment
The traditional leadership contract no longer fits today’s workplace. It relied on long hours and constant availability. It also depended on emotional labour and limited organisational support. That model assumed stability and predictable hierarchies. It also assumed that systems would remain linear and controlled. Today’s workplace does not reflect those assumptions.
Leaders now operate in volatile economic conditions. They also navigate rapid technological change and hybrid teams. In addition, they manage rising employee expectations without consistent training support.
Younger workers observe these pressures clearly. They value autonomy and flexibility. They also prioritise meaningful work over positional authority. More so, they do not see leadership as offering those outcomes. Instead, they want influence rather than titles. They also want impact rather than hierarchy. As a result, future leaders are missing in action and this becomes a visible outcome of misaligned expectations.
The mentorship ladder has collapsed
One of the most significant findings in the Human Edge report shows a global gap in mentorship. It reports that 57% of workers have never had a mentor. This figure signals a serious breakdown in leadership development systems. In South Africa, this gap becomes even wider. Organisational structures often limit access to senior leaders. Geography and inequality also restrict exposure to mentorship opportunities.
Mentorship plays a critical role in leadership development. It identifies potential and nurtures capability. It also transfers institutional knowledge across generations. Without mentorship, the leadership pathway becomes unclear. This is how a leadership blackout begins. Senior leaders retire or shift into flexible arrangements. Meanwhile, emerging leaders hesitate to step forward.
The system that once connected generations of leaders now weakens. As a result, knowledge transfer becomes inconsistent. When replacement lags behind experience, the gap expands quietly. Over time, future leaders are missing in action, and this is a structural reality rather than a temporary trend.
The gig economy is redefining career paths
The Human Edge report also highlights the global rise of gig and portfolio careers. It notes that 27% of Gen Z workers now supplement income through gig or part-time work. This trend reshapes how young workers approach careers.
In South Africa, this pattern intensifies significantly. The Student Village / Flux Trends Gen Z Economy Report (2025) shows that 45% of Gen Z workers engage in side gigs or short-term projects. They do this not only for income but also for skills development and autonomy.
This difference between global and local data is significant. It shows that young South Africans adopt portfolio careers at nearly double the global rate. High unemployment, above 43%, drives this behaviour further. Gig work provides flexibility and control. It also delivers faster skill acquisition than many traditional roles. As a result, traditional leadership roles must now compete with alternative career models.
In this environment, future leaders missing in action reflect a rational response to better-perceived alternatives rather than a lack of ambition.
What South African businesses must do now?
Organisations must rethink leadership if they want people to choose it again. They need to redesign leadership for modern work realities. This requires a shift away from command-and-control models. Instead, organisations must adopt coaching and collaboration approaches. They must also promote shared decision-making structures. These changes increase engagement and relevance.
Mentorship must return as a core organisational practice. The Human Edge report confirms that mentorship now forms the backbone of succession planning. It no longer functions as an optional extra. Businesses must also expand leadership pathways beyond formal degrees. The gap between degree and non-degree holders has narrowed over the past 30 years. This trend places greater emphasis on skills over credentials.
Leadership roles must also compete with gig economy flexibility. Organisations should introduce autonomy and project-based work internally. These features improve retention and appeal. Wellbeing must also become a leadership competency. Sustainable leadership depends on psychological and operational support. Without it, organisations continue to see future leaders missing in action across pipelines.
A new leadership contract
South Africa does not face a shortage of leaders. Instead, it faces a shortage of reasons for people to become leaders. This distinction is critical for organisational strategy. Companies must therefore design a new leadership contract. This contract must prioritise flexibility and human-centred design. It must also emphasise skills-based progression.
Leadership must become genuinely aspirational again. It must offer value beyond pressure and responsibility. It must also align with modern expectations of work and wellbeing.
As I often say, “If we want the next generation to lead, we must give them something worth leading.” Without this shift, future leaders missing in action will remain the defining feature of South Africa’s leadership landscape.
