Duggan Matthews | Investment Professional | Marriott Asset Management | mail me |
For much of the last century, investment success depended on foresight. Investors believed they could anticipate market cycles, economic turning points and policy changes to stay ahead. But that paradigm is shifting.
Today, markets no longer respond only to fundamentals such as interest rates or corporate earnings. Instead, fast-moving, unpredictable forces now dominate.
A single tweet from a political leader, a sudden policy shift or a change in public sentiment can move global markets in minutes. In this environment, forecasting outcomes with consistency feels more like speculation than strategy.
Political, ideological and geopolitical developments unfold in real time, often without warning. Building portfolios around what might happen next has become a high-risk exercise. As a result, investors are rethinking investing as they navigate this uncertainty.
The familiar disclaimer, “past performance is not indicative of future results”, feels more relevant than ever.
Why relative performance is no longer a North Star
Despite greater market complexity, many investors and fund managers still focus on relative performance. They measure success not by absolute value created but by comparing a portfolio’s return to a benchmark or peer group. This mindset is increasingly out of step with long-term investing goals. It encourages short-term decisions and herd behaviour. It also promotes risk-taking aimed at outperforming others rather than preserving capital or achieving steady compounding.
Short-term performance often tells only part of the story. Strong results may depend on timing, sentiment or random events. These factors are rarely repeatable. A rally driven by momentum or favourable politics can look impressive but may not endure.
True resilience comes from understanding what performed well, why it worked, and whether it can be repeated. Rethinking investing helps investors shift focus from comparison to conviction, building strength through fundamentals rather than fleeting trends.
Preparing for the unpredictable
In a world defined by uncertainty, investors must ask a better question. Instead of wondering, “What happens next?” they should ask, “How prepared are we for anything?”
Following Benjamin Franklin’s advice in the heading above, a new approach to portfolio construction is essential. Rather than chasing every market twist, investors should create portfolios that can withstand a wide range of outcomes.
It begins with owning the right kinds of businesses. High-growth, non-dividend-paying stocks, often in sectors like AI or biotechnology, can deliver big returns in good times. Yet, they also react sharply to shifts in market sentiment.
Commodity and resource stocks add another layer of volatility because they depend heavily on global demand and geopolitical stability. In contrast, companies that supply essential goods and services, such as utilities, consumer staples and healthcare, offer steadier cash flows.
Firms with a record of paying and growing dividends bring predictability, even during turbulence. These businesses anchor resilient portfolios. They also reflect the core idea behind rethinking investing – building durability rather than chasing trends.
Focus on fundamentals, not forecasts
Our philosophy is built on a simple truth. When investment outcomes are predictable, investors gain peace of mind. That peace fosters long-term commitment and allows compounding to work over time.
To achieve this, we design portfolios around companies with strong balance sheets and consistent dividend histories. Each has a clear path to sustainable growth. These businesses do not depend on market timing or temporary catalysts. They create steady cash flows by meeting enduring human needs.
We also resist the urge to chase relative performance. That behaviour often drives investors toward speculative or momentum-driven bets. Such positions may deliver quick gains but rarely sustain long-term success. This approach may not top performance tables during bull markets. However, it provides greater consistency and protection during volatility. By staying disciplined, Marriott embodies the spirit of rethinking investing – focusing on quality, patience and resilience.
Quality at the core – companies that anchor our portfolios
The companies we invest in share common traits. They have durable business models, essential products, strong market positions, and dependable dividends. Below are examples of businesses that help form our portfolios’ foundation.
| Company | Key Strength | Strategic Insight | Did You Know? |
Market position = #1 Dividend cuts (20 yrs) = 0 |
Irreplaceable tech supplier powering next-generation semiconductor production. Its Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines are essential to making modern AI chips. | Critical enabler of global AI and semiconductor growth; unmatched competitive moat with rising demand for advanced chips. | ASML is the only company in the world that manufactures Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, a critical and highly advanced technology used to make the most cutting-edge computer chips. |
Market position = #1 Dividend cuts (20 yrs) = 0 |
Iconic beverage giant with an unmatched global distribution network and resilient demand. | Generates strong cash flow with low capital needs. A defensive but growing company which benefits from emerging market demand, product innovation and real pricing strength globally. | Coca-Cola is consumed 1.9 billion times a day, making it the most widely consumed branded product on earth. |
Market position = #1 Dividend cuts (20 yrs) = 0 |
Premier digital infrastructure provider at the core of cloud, finance, and telecom traffic. | Benefits from the explosion in cloud computing, AI workloads, and global data consumption as digital infrastructure becomes essential. | Equinix operates 250+ data centres globally and powers the digital infrastructure of over half the Fortune 500 companies. |
Market position = #1 Dividend cuts (20 yrs) = 0 |
Diversified healthcare leader with a focus on Innovative Medicine and MedTech. | Stable cash generator in a volatile market, with growth from new pharmaceutical pipelines and medical technology innovation. | J&J has increased its dividend for over 60 consecutive years, while serving over a billion people every day through health innovations. |
Market position = #1 Dividend cuts (20 yrs) = 0 |
Global beauty powerhouse combining scientific R&D with luxury brand strength and innovation. | Leveraging global beauty demand and scientific innovation, with rising opportunities in skincare and high-growth emerging markets. | L’Oréal reaches consumers across 150+ countries, owns over 35 different beauty brands, ranging from luxury houses like Lancôme to mass-market icons like Garnier and Maybelline. |
Market position = #1 Dividend cuts (20 yrs) = 0 |
Trusted market leader with powerful cloud, software and AI solutions. | Microsoft’s strong cloud and AI leadership, combined with its broad ecosystem, creates a lasting competitive advantage and loyal customer base. Its heavy investment in AI and infrastructure positions it to lead the ongoing digital transformation. | Over 1.5 billion people rely on Microsoft software daily, and 95% of Fortune 500 companies use Azure for cloud services. |
Market position = #1 Dividend cuts (20 yrs) = 0 |
Global leader in consumer staples with deep brand loyalty, pricing power and scale. | Positioned to thrive irrespective of the macro environment due to its trusted brands and focus on innovation, backed by a strong global supply chain. | Over 5 billion people use P&G products daily – and more than 20 brands each generate $1 billion+ in sales annually. |
Market position = #1 Dividend cuts (20 yrs) = 0 |
Dominant global payments network with unmatched scale, security and reliability. | Well-positioned to capitalise on the global shift to digital and cross-border payments, especially as e-commerce and fintech expand. | Visa processes over 260 billion transactions annually and touches nearly every digital payment globally – without taking on credit risk. |
Source: Bloomberg and company websites
Each of these companies reflects rethinking investing in action. They show how strength, innovation and reliability can coexist in a balanced portfolio.
Resilience over prediction
In unpredictable markets, resilience beats prediction. At Marriott, we focus on quality companies with stable cash flows and consistent dividend growth. Each holds durable competitive advantages that perform across conditions.
By maintaining this disciplined approach, we aim to preserve capital and deliver steady compounding returns. We also provide investors with financial peace of mind. Ultimately, rethinking investing means focusing on what endures rather than what excites. It transforms uncertainty into opportunity by grounding portfolios in quality and patience.
