Tag: Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

When the minister of finance delivered Budget 2020/21 on 26 February 2020, COVID-19 was mostly contained to China (with other countries registering few cases). The budget therefore made virtually no provision for what was to become one of the largest health and economic meltdowns in the past 90 years. As such, except for the growing fiscal deficit, the main and consolidated budgets[1] contained no earth-shattering announcements.

Taxpayers were listening very closely as Tito Mboweni delivered his annual budget speech. Taxpayers can however breathe a sigh of relief as no increases in tax rates will be incurred despite a year of national lockdown and the roll out of the vaccine.

Finance Minister Tito Mboweni’s budget has been received very positively, as demonstrated by the reaction from markets. SA Inc companies have rallied, the rand initially strengthened, and even the bond market is acting positively. However, while there are notes of hope, this budget also demonstrates a number of key risks, overly optimistic assumptions and potential weaknesses, pointing to an extremely challenging path ahead for the country.

Minister of Finance Tito Mboweni delivered his Budget Speech 2021 to Parliament on Wednesday, February 24. This document provides an overview of key information relating to the economic outlook, government revenue and expenditure, fiscal balance, and the public debt trajectory.

Last year’s Budget Speech was delivered in front of a full house in the National Assembly. Politicians, journalists and special guests mingled before and after the speech. There were hugs, handshakes and back slaps aplenty. Next week’s version takes place in a world that has completely changed.

The GDP numbers are much better than expected. In fact, the 66% quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualised figure is better than even the best industry expectation. It has definitely been a positive surprise which has been well received by the market as we can see from the positive movements in the rand exchange rates as well as the bond market.

The South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept interest rates steady at 3.5% at the scheduled September 2020 interest rate-setting meeting despite downwardly revised growth and inflation views. This decision tied in with the view of 15 out of the 25 analysts surveyed by Reuters, while we were one of the ten favouring a 25-basis point cut.

The rapid changes experienced over the past few months and leading to the current relaxation of lockdown levels, has resulted in the South African economy’s recovery taking the shape of a ‘swoosh’ of a fast decline then a quick recovery that will take time to be fully realised.

On Tuesday Stats SA announced that SA’s GDP had contracted 51% between April and June (using annualised quarter on quarter numbers – in other words, this is a 17% decrease for the quarter) as a result of the lockdown imposed in response to Covid-19. The contraction was shocking – but not unexpected. Given that government took the decision to implement one of the harshest and longest lockdowns globally, the severity of the economic contraction should not come as a surprise.  

Latest GDP figures have laid bare the grim reality of COVID-19’s economic effects, revealing an unprecedented 51% decline in economic activity in the second quarter of this year (quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised).