Assets & Investments

Despite recent diplomatic peace efforts from the US, the US-Israel war on Iran has now entered its fourth week. As a result, the situation remains extremely volatile. Moreover, ongoing Middle East tensions continue to heighten uncertainty across global markets. As the days pass, the risk of a stagflationary environment increases. In this scenario, low growth and high inflation occur simultaneously.

South Africa’s economic environment has rarely felt straightforward. However, right now it feels particularly layered. Global trade tensions, domestic fiscal pressures and stubborn unemployment figures have left many buyers and investors hesitant. As a result, they often wonder whether to act or wait. In my experience, hesitation is often where opportunity quietly disappears.

Despite the private capital industry’s proven track record, many investors still view Private Equity (PE) and Venture Capital (VC) as inherently risky investments. However, this perception does not fully reflect how private capital markets actually function. This conversation around risk in private capital markets is long overdue for reframing. Risk in private capital markets differs fundamentally from that experienced in public markets.

Geopolitics often feels distant. Many people see it as something that happens far away, involving borders or disputes over natural resources. These events usually take place on the other side of the world. However, the reality is far more personal for the average South African household. This is precisely why geopolitics matters to your pocket.

Over the years, many South Africans have gravitated towards large cities. They often move in search of career opportunities, entertainment and easier access to amenities. Recently, however, signs of a gradual shift have emerged. Many consumers now reconsider long-term decisions about family life, careers and retirement. As a result, interest in smaller communities continues to grow.

The recent escalation in the Middle East has reintroduced a geopolitical risk premium into global markets. Investors now price in the risk of supply disruptions and wider regional instability. This shift reflects growing uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict.

Over the course of my career - as a gold and bond trader, a portfolio manager running large global multi-asset and solutions portfolios - I’ve often been asked: What lessons have you learned?

On 26 November 2025, the South African Revenue Service (SARS) released a draft Interpretation Note on section 7C of the Income Tax Act No. 58 of 1962. Section 7C is an anti-avoidance provision. It targets interest-free or low-interest loans used to fund trusts. The tax authority’s message is clear. There is no such thing as an informal, interest-free loan to your trust anymore. This position amounts to a direct warning to young South Africans who increasingly use trusts as wealth vehicles.

The operating environment in 2025 remained volatile and uncertain. Geopolitical conflict, policy uncertainty and US tariffs drove this instability. Closer to home, South Africa made progress across several fronts. As a result, financial markets, corporates and individuals adopted a more optimistic outlook. The South African economy outperformed expectations. Real GDP growth more than doubled to 1.2% year on year during the first three quarters of 2025.

Two overarching themes are likely to dominate the investing landscape over 2026 and beyond - the unstoppable rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the changing global order. These subjects are complex and dynamic. It is impossible (and unwise) to form a fully-fledged thesis. More important than knowing the terrain is having the right attitude to traverse it.