For as long as African states have borrowed on international markets, a handful of analysts sitting thousands of kilometres away have had an outsized say in what that money costs.
With the official launch of the Africa Credit Rating Agency (AfCRA) in Mauritius on 7 October 2026, the African Union (AU) has gone beyond claiming a seat at the proverbial table. Instead, it has built its own table.
Why now?
African leaders have long accused the “big three” ratings agencies, Moody’s, Fitch and S&P, of overstating Africa’s risk and downgrading too quickly during a crisis. However, a 2024 Reuters investigation found no evidence of systemic bias in their sovereign ratings for the region.
What is not in dispute is the bill. The continent’s annual external debt service climbed from USD 61 billion in 2010 to USD 163 billion in 2024. In some countries, interest payments now exceed national health and education budgets.
The UN Development Programme has also quantified the opportunity cost. It estimates that fairer rating methodologies could unlock savings of up to USD 5 billion a year, or as much as USD 75 billion for African borrowers over time. These numbers may not directly substantiate the longstanding grievance. Nevertheless, they certainly support the case for exploring alternative mechanisms and models to measure African creditworthiness and reassess Africa’s risk.
A familiar thread for our readers
In our Confluence Revolution series on private credit in Africa, we charted how the continent’s credit markets are being reshaped by the same forces now converging on AfCRA’s launch.
African private debt deal values grew 14% year-on-year, even as other asset classes declined. Meanwhile, local institutional investors are increasingly looking to plug a lending gap that traditional banks cannot fill because of capital requirements. AfCRA is best understood as the sovereign-level counterpart to that story. It signals that African capital and debt markets are maturing and demanding institutions built for African conditions, rather than retrofitted from elsewhere.
This development also reinforces a recurring proposition: Africa does not simply need more capital. It needs stronger financial institutions and credible mechanisms to channel its substantial domestic savings into productive investment.
Private credit funds are emerging as one such channel, connecting institutional investors with businesses and infrastructure projects underserved by traditional lenders. AfCRA could become another important part of that ecosystem. It could improve credit information, strengthen risk assessment and help investors distinguish between perceived and actual credit risk. In doing so, it could also help address persistent misconceptions about Africa’s risk.
What clients stand to gain
AfCRA will rate sovereigns, financial institutions and private companies. The agency is positioned as a complement to, rather than a rival of, the incumbent agencies. The AU notes that 23 African economies currently have no rating from the big three.
For our clients, that gap presents an opportunity. AfCRA could introduce a new, Africa-grounded benchmark for pricing bonds and loans. It could also provide a fresh comparator for acquisition and project financing, alongside ratings coverage for borrowers who have simply never made it onto the scoreboard before.
The trust problem
Here is the uncomfortable truth that commentators keep returning to: a rating agency is only as useful as the trust investors place in it. Trust is precisely what AfCRA does not yet have.
The first hurdle will be inevitably credibility. This is because a new rating agency begins with a promise while investors ultimately require a track record.
– Dennis Shen of the International School of Management in Berlin told Bloomberg.
Economist Daouda Sembène has made the same point more bluntly. For AfCRA to matter, it must be independent of the AU and its member states. It cannot merely be African in name.
At the Financial Times Africa Summit in London, held on 21 and 22 October 2026, Angola’s Minister of State for Economic Coordination, José de Lima Massano, put the grievance in human terms. He described a country that continues to honour its debts while paying a premium for the privilege. That disconnect is precisely what AfCRA was built to address.
Why Mauritius matters to us
Mauritius was chosen as AfCRA’s home, no doubt because of its well-established and credible financial markets and related infrastructure. The AU publicly inaugurated the institution at the 7 October ceremony in Port Louis. However, the event did not mark the start of business. AfCRA must still register and obtain a licence from the Mauritius Financial Services Commission. It must also finalise its as-yet-unannounced corporate structure and issue its first rating before it can operate as a going concern.
Mauritius is a jurisdiction whose inner workings we know well through our direct work on transactions and enduring collaboration with our alliance partner in the country. This connection will give us a front-row seat and backstage pass to the genesis of a continental financial institution.
AfCRA will not move the price of a single bond tomorrow. Its significance may ultimately lie in something broader: helping to build the financial infrastructure through which investors better understand African risk, deploy capital with greater confidence and channel African savings into productive investment.
In conclusion
Alongside the growth of private credit, deeper local capital markets and stronger institutional investment frameworks, AfCRA represents another step towards a continent that does not merely attract capital from elsewhere. Instead, it increasingly mobilises, deploys and recycles its own. Its success will depend on whether it earns the confidence of the investors whose capital decisions it seeks to influence.
Discussions at the Africa Summit strongly suggested a growing determination across the continent to help shape how African economies are assessed and how investment risk is understood. Ultimately, AfCRA’s ability to deliver on that ambition will determine whether it can change how global markets perceive Africa’s risk and how investors price opportunities across the continent.
 |
 |
| Michael Denenga | Partner | mail me | | Sabelo Ndlovu | Associate | mail me | |
| | Webber Wentzel | | |
