Chris Geerdts | Managing Director | BMIT | mail me |
Our latest SA Satellite Comms Report 2026 provides an in-depth analysis. The report shows the extent to which satellites transform enterprise, consumer, government and wholesale markets. It also positions the satellite market and industry as a central driver of digital infrastructure change.
Our satellite report now analyses how satellite solutions address South Africa’s twin challenges of coverage and affordability. In addition, this analysis highlights how the satellite market and industry continue to evolve under structural demand pressures.
However, uncertainty around regulations and competitor launch timing shapes the outlook. Therefore, we developed both “high road” and “low road” market scenarios. These scenarios reflect different trajectories for adoption, investment and policy alignment.
Competitive constellations and emerging global players
Starlink already shows strong global uptake. However, it still faces regulatory hurdles in South Africa regarding official licensing. Authorities will eventually legitimise it, although not in the short term. Meanwhile, the grey market has expanded significantly. This growth underscores strong pent-up demand for satellite services.
Amazon’s Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) constellation, Amazon Leo, targets aggressive competition with Starlink. It focuses on price and performance across business and consumer segments. It currently aims to deliver selective wholesale services to mobile operators before December. It also targets a full commercial launch by early 2027. In addition, it builds partnerships with local licensees to accelerate entry into South Africa. The broader satellite market and industry will feel this competitive pressure as new entrants scale.
The Chinese constellation, Spacesail, already operates more than 500 satellites. Its first publicly announced project focuses on rural connectivity in Brazil. China is expected to prioritise South Africa as a key market. However, the exact timing remains uncertain. This expansion reinforces how the satellite market and industry are shifting toward global multi-orbit competition.
Eutelsat maintains a strong local presence. It delivers services through its high-throughput geostationary (HTS GEO) satellite network and its LEO constellation, OneWeb. In partnership with BCX, Q-KON and Paratus, OneWeb strengthens its enterprise position. Local Service Providers (LSPs) use it to deliver tailored data services.
These include data pooling across multiple corporate sites, which improves affordability and efficiency. As a result, we expect substantial growth in the business-to-business (B2B) segment.
Enterprise growth and infrastructure expansion
Supply-side constraints continue to diminish. Consequently, we forecast strong B2B satellite expansion. Depending on the scenario, active B2B satellite terminals could grow from about 27,500 in 2024 to over 75,000 by 2029. This expansion will significantly reshape the satellite market and industry in South Africa.
Retail, banking and remote industries drive this growth. Banking uses satellite links for SD-WAN networks, point-of-sale systems and ATM connectivity. Remote sectors such as mining, exploration, corporate agriculture and eco-tourism lodges also rely heavily on satellite connectivity. These industries require resilient and wide-area communications.
Mobile operators increasingly integrate both LEO and HTS GEO satellites. They use these systems to connect deep-rural cell towers. Fibre and microwave backhaul often prove economically unfeasible in these regions. This segment alone represents up to 10,000 potential sites in South Africa.
Consumer access, coverage gaps and D2D innovation
Our spatial analysis shows a strong urban bias in fibre and 5G coverage. However, a large consumer market remains underserved. Approximately 12 million households in remote areas still require high-speed internet access. Around 2.4 million of these households represent a high-potential market for satellite services. This depends on achieving an acceptable price-to-performance balance within the satellite market and industry.
Direct-to-Device (D2D) technology represents a major shift for consumers. It allows standard smartphones to connect directly to LEO satellites without modification. As a result, it eliminates mobile “dead zones”. South African operators already test partnerships with companies such as AST SpaceMobile. They follow global precedents, including Starlink and T-Mobile collaborations.
Satellite IoT also emerges as an early-stage but high-value opportunity. It supports use cases such as asset tracking, precision agriculture and environmental monitoring.
In conclusion
We estimate that the satellite-based IoT market in South Africa could reach R1.6 billion by 2030. This growth further strengthens the satellite market and industry outlook.
Satellites no longer function as backup infrastructure for remote areas. Instead, they now serve as a core pillar of South Africa’s digital ecosystem. As LEO constellations mature, satellite systems will help close the digital divide. At the same time, they will unlock billions in economic value for operators and enterprises.
