Lee-Anne Bac | Advisory Partner | Tourism | BDO South Africa | mail me |
The numbers tell a sobering story. South Africa welcomed 5.85 million international tourists from January to July 2025. This marks a 14% increase over 2024. Yet, we remain frustratingly close and still far from our pre-pandemic peak.
We are just 33,000 visitors short of 2019 levels, a mere 1%. However, this apparent success masks deeper structural challenges that demand immediate attention for SA’s tourism recovery.
The competitive reality check
Globally, international tourism returned to 2019 levels in 2024, with more than 12% growth. Meanwhile, South Africa’s recovery crawled forward at just 5.1%. We are now 13% behind our 2019 arrivals.
Even more troubling, we have ceded ground to our African competitors. Kenya returned to 2019 levels in 2023. Tanzania exceeded them in 2022 and achieved 18% growth in 2024. Morocco, now Africa’s leading destination, reached 17.4 million arrivals in 2024, with 20% growth.
In 2016, Morocco had 10.3 million arrivals, South Africa 10 million and Tunisia 5.7 million. Today, Morocco leads with 17.4 million. Tunisia holds second with 10.3 million, and South Africa ranks third. This reversal forces an uncomfortable question: why has our industry failed to keep pace, and what does it mean for SA’s tourism recovery?
The overseas market crisis
The most concerning trend lies in our overseas tourism performance. This segment is the jewel in tourism’s economic crown because of high per-visitor spending. Yet, with just 1.3 million overseas arrivals in the first seven months of 2025, we are still 10% behind 2019 levels and 12% behind 2018. This decline translates to stark economic losses.
The 183,000 “lost” overseas visitors cost South Africa about R4.3 billion in direct foreign spending for the first seven months of 2025 alone. For the full year 2024, the shortfall in overseas visitors resulted in R13.3 billion in lost foreign direct expenditure. These export earnings slipped away at the exact moment when SA’s tourism recovery and the economy need them most.
Key overseas markets paint a mixed picture:
- China remains catastrophic
Only 23,600 Chinese tourists arrived in the first seven months of 2025. This is just 44% of 2019 levels, despite the February 2025 introduction of the Trusted Tour Operator Scheme.
- India shows an alarming decline
Arrivals remain 27% behind 2019, with a further 9% drop compared to 2024.
- European markets continue to struggle
France is at 79% of 2019 levels, Germany at 87%, and Italy reaching 90%.
- The USA shows fatigue
Growth is only 3% year-on-year, despite being our largest source market.
African market success and opportunity
The African market provides the brightest spot. From January to July 2025, South Africa welcomed 4.55 million African visitors. This is 118,000 more than in 2019, exceeding that year by 3%. This success story offers crucial lessons for SA’s tourism recovery.
Visa policy works. Ghana’s visitor numbers doubled 2019 levels in 2024 after the removal of mutual visa requirements. Visitors spent an average of R24,000 per person per trip. Kenyan arrivals exceeded 2019 levels by 58% in 2024, averaging R18,500 per person.
Air access also matters. African air arrivals for the first seven months of 2025 were 16% above 2019 levels. Improved connectivity drove this increase. However, opportunities remain untapped. Key African markets still lag: Angola is 40% below 2019 levels, Nigeria 39% below, Egypt 11% below and Uganda 9% below.
Cape Town’s strategic victory
The Cape Town Air Access Strategy demonstrates what focused, strategic intervention can achieve. Cape Town International Airport’s overseas arrivals exceeded 2019 levels by 21% in the first seven months of 2025. By contrast, OR Tambo International Airport remained 21% below 2019 levels. This success comes with a caveat.
The growth reflects a shift rather than an overall increase in total international arrivals. The strategy worked for Cape Town but also exposed systemic challenges in growing the national market.
Hotel performance reflects market realities
Hotel performance data reveals structural changes in the industry:
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5-star hotels
Occupancy declined slightly from 64% to 62% year-on-year. Yet, they remain the strongest performers. Cape Town’s 5-star properties achieved average room rates 41% higher than 2019 levels in real terms. RevPAR rose from R2,100 in 2019 to R4,000 in 2025. Sandton’s 5-star market, however, struggles with just R1,100 RevPAR and rates down 20% compared to 2019.
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4-star hotels
Cape Town outperforms with 40% real growth in average room rates over 2019. KwaZulu-Natal properties remain 14% below 2019 levels in real terms, despite improved occupancy.
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3-star hotels
These face the greatest challenges outside Cape Town. Sandton experienced a 45% real RevPAR decline compared to 2019. KwaZulu-Natal recorded a 17% real decline.
Strategic imperatives for recovery
The data shows that tourism’s traditional model has fundamentally changed. Competition has intensified from destinations once considered minor players. Markets are increasingly shaped by lifestyle and life stage rather than geography. South Africa’s tourism infrastructure appears poorly structured for these realities.
Immediate actions are required:
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Brand South Africa campaign
Launch a comprehensive national campaign to improve South Africa’s global image. This must address geopolitical perceptions that deter both investment and tourism.
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Air access development fund
Build an economy-wide approach to improving connectivity, particularly to underserved but high-potential regional and overseas markets.
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Crime, grime and decay
Implement meaningful public-private-community partnerships, including city improvement districts. These must address urban decay that drives away visitors.
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Economic growth focus
Prioritise economic development to boost business tourism from domestic, regional, and overseas markets.
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Welcoming environment
Create systematic approaches to ensure South Africa’s naturally welcoming culture is consistently experienced.
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Product innovation
Develop unique tourism products that offer diverse experiences. Ensure delivery through skilled, passionate workforces.
The fundamental shift required
The tourism sector must recognise that it operates within a broader economy. Challenges require economy-wide solutions supported by all sectors. Tourism cannot recover in isolation from manufacturing weakness, energy constraints or governance challenges.
Most critically, tourism must be positioned at the centre of our economy. It holds a unique capacity to create employment opportunities across skill levels. Its multiplier effect on job creation, foreign exchange earnings, and regional development makes it indispensable to South Africa’s recovery.
The statistics paint a clear picture. While competitors surge ahead, SA’s tourism recovery remains frustratingly incomplete. The African market’s success and Cape Town’s air access achievements prove that strategic, coordinated interventions work. Now we need political will, private sector commitment and public support to scale these successes nationally.
The choice is clear. We must adapt our strategies to new market realities and competitive dynamics. Otherwise, other destinations will claim the growth that should be ours.
