Dr Ivor Blumenthal | CEO | ArkKonsult | mail me |
Tonight President Cyril Ramaphosa will rise in Parliament to review the current State of the Nation, and to indicate what he will be doing over the next 12 months to steer South Africa through the very troubling waters the country is currently in.
Some are saying that this may be the Presidents LAST SONA SPEECH, given that in June 2020, 3,000 delegates of the National General Council of the ANC will meet to decide whether what was agreed upon at NASREC during the 54th Elective Conference in 2018, has in-fact been implemented and born results? This is when the pro-Zuma faction within the ANC will undoubtedly fire everything they have at the Ramaphosa constituency to discredit and unseat President Cyril Ramaphosa, focusing specifically on the relationship CR17 has with White Monopoly Capital and the slow pace of implementation of Land Reform which was a major cornerstone of resolutions flowing out of NASREC.
Interesting times lie ahead, and a betting person would not bet against Ramaphosa simply because the pro-Zuma narrative is sexier, louder and is being provided with excessive media coverage. The one thing that the President is proving not to be is loud, sexy and capable of capturing the hearts and minds of the dispossessed and bloodthirsty masses.
So, what do we look for and draw conclusions about?
Law and order
Perhaps the most urgent is to see what the President says about Law and Order and the National Prosecuting Authority?
Will more resources be devoted to investigations and prosecutions?
Will Estina be timeously revived and Ace Magashula, the single most divisive and dangerous figure in the ANC, Cyrils sworn enemy, be asked for more than a WARNING STATEMENT, as is being predicted?
Will VBS Bank Prosecutions materialize and swallow Malema, Shivambu et-al or will it die a damp squib as some anticipate with lower-level politicians and Local Government Officials be sacrificed at the alter of public consumption?
Will the courageous Judge who ordered Zuma’s arrest, be provided with the necessary Judicial and SAPS support and backup to enforce an order of non-compliance against the ‘Machine Gun Shower-Head’ or will Bathabile’s not-so-veiled threats materialize and social disorder become the order of the day?
The economy
What about our Economy? Will SONA indicate a way through this ‘Labour versus Capital’ Impasse, which is essentially always going to be a Business versus Cosatu battle, where Cosatu is invariably going to side with Government in a 2-1 Social Partner battle to the death?
What will the President say about 4-IR in-terms of active steps to prevent a Labour Bloodbath in South Africa? He is after all the President of multiple 4-IR Focus Groups and Civil Society structures looking at mass job-losses in all sectors of our economy under the umbrella causes of 4-IR and technology innovations?
On the Economy we look to the President to indicate what steps he is going to take to action previous pronouncements on infrastructure development budgets being created, public works programs being enhanced and supply side incentives managed by DTI being ratcheted up? Lots of talk and almost no delivery over the past 24 months.
Will Ramaphosa tell us why and where the blockages are, or will he simply revert to false statistics on job creation and imagined fanciful economic growth?
Of particular importance here will be what he says about getting the Construction Sector back on track and managing the social upheavals which have occurred causing multiple large construction businesses to go under
Public sector
Public Servants will look to SONA for some kind of indication on multiple fronts.
Their first focus will be on how secure their jobs will be in the years-to-come. They will want to know what will be done to recover pension losses caused by PIC shenanigans and whether Cosatu’s fanciful call to use Pension Money to bail Eskom and other SOE’s out of the dwang will come to fruition?
Private Pension Fund Companies will nervously be sitting by to find out whether Cosatu’s challenge on-behalf of the PIC will be taken seriously or not? i.e. If the PIC puts up, will a legislative framework be shoved through our ANC-controlled Parliament forcing Private Pension and Provident Fund companies to equal and surpass the PIC’s sacrifices under the guise of this nondescript thing called PRESCRIBED ASSETS?
It looks like sufficient reason has prevailed internally within Cosatu to make the Federation question its own Eskom Bailout Proposal though. Bleeding members is never a good strategic way to go when you depend on that membership for your Mustangs petrol.
Coronavirus
Coronavirus is the latest medical plague to hit globally and one wonders whether the President and his NEC have discussed investing heavily in a preventative strategy which is first world in nature or not?
We may find out something in this regard from the President on the 13th if Minister Mkhize reflects his medical training. If not then we will continue to boast of having NO INFECTIONS in SA, despite three plane loads of Chinese being flown into Johannesburg EVERY SINGLE MORNING, and spread throughout the country.
Perhaps the President should be looking at a serious investment in our national Morgues, and autopsy services? If not people will simply continue dying in SA of multiple causes which get written down as NATURAL DEATHS.
Climate change
And what about Climate Change in SA? Will our President venture to do something concrete in this regard to play a leadership role on the world stage he enjoys, or simply regard it as one of a long list of priorities he and the NEC will eventually get to?
Alongside the general condition of our climate, what will the President say about the state of our waterways and water resources? A fear is spreading that on a local government level, free energy and water via solar and boreholes will become a taxable commodity if the ANC has its way. Will the President be short-sighted enough to allow this to happen? We may find out.
Water
There is growing disquiet that our water security is now officially beyond the state of repair and remediation and that a deal has been struck with SADEC and other African partners to bolster the continental economy by buying water from them?
One imagines that there is very little of the commodity for sale on the continent but our Minister of Trade and Industry has this notion of an open borderless continent where free and open trade of commodities including water is possible. The question is whether this President is woke to how ludicrous that suggestion is on our continent particularly?
Investment
The Presidents essential challenge and one upon which his Presidency is based, is global faith in SA as a worthwhile investment?
The reality is that many Prime Ministers and Presidents have said NO. The latest being Angela Merkel.
The world has lost faith in the security of investments in SA and one imagines that the open transparent way we are going about dealing with Crime and Corruption and the excellent work being done by Judge Zondo, is making the world shiver and shake.
They say it’s the Energy Crisis i.e. Eskom but they all have similar crises. California, Russia in Europe etc.
The real problem with the International Perception of SA is the openness and transparency with which we deal with things here. We operationalise Investigative Reporting and they dislike us intensely for it. Similar in effect to how the world regarded SA during the Hansie Cronje cricket trials.
The world, particularly the EU and the USA, Australia and yes even New Zealand is not used to or familiar with transparency. It makes them feel uneasy. So the challenge intensifies….how do we encourage and elicit Inward Bound Investment of the magnitude necessary to stabilize our economy? What will the President say in SONA about that?
Importantly in this regard is the fact that in 2016 President Zuma sold tens of hundreds of billions of dollars of our debt to the Chinese. Very little has been reported about that and importantly what we promised China in-return for buying that debt?
Come to think of it one has to ask what happened to that chunk of inward bound investment? Was it swallowed up by the fiscus? Where is it reported on and how are our repayment activities progressing? The possibility of China recalling that debt is stark now, given the spread of China’s latest export… Coronavirus and its effect on the Chinese economy. Are our National Assets such as Ports and Airports secure from the Chinese given they have been the first line of attack with other African countries which have defaulted.
State Owned Enterprises (SOE)
As a final thought, our SOE’s and particularly our Transport SOE’s. There’s so much to say and do. We hang on the Presidents every word though as to what that will be?
I was asked if there is anything positive to say to convince people to stay? The answer is a perennial question? How stupid can a person be to think that a 25 year old country stands any chance of getting things so right, so quickly.
Remembering that we inherited a country with infrastructure, schools, hospitals and public services, built for 10% of our population, where that same infrastructure has been reliably stretched to maybe now be catering to 25% of that population in a mere 25 years, in a world which because of Globalisation is actively dispossessing the majority of every population in every country on every continent, comparatively speaking…..were not doing that badly.
Employment
The primary challenge has to be sustainable and decent jobs and growing our Tax Base.
The primary obstacle has to be the runaway advance of technology which is the enemy of a labour intensive economy but whose primary ‘Robber Barons’ such as Bizos, Zuckerberg and Gates, have captured the minds, logic and resources of entire Governments.
The primary tools available to our President has to be to cut access to offsetting the 4-IR Technology Virus in the workplace against scarce tax resources on the one hand and to actively disincentivise job-replacement technology being introduced into our workplaces on the other.
If that ship has sailed then introducing a minimum survival subsidy, a dole for the unemployed and unemployable is a priority and has to be first in-line and replace all other socialistic incentives available to the public at large.
A package deal including free health, education, and care of the elderly needs to replace the luxury incentives being dished out by our Government such as child support and multiple expensive schemes which are racially divisive when we can least afford to disincentivise an entire employer base which have the skills and aptitude to increase trade and create sustainable jobs. The fact that they remain predominantly White and Male says more about their quality, resilience and promise than their imagined and over-reported unhealthy hold on the economy.
Personal options
Why emigrate? No country is waiting for you. No civil society wants you. You are African and therefore tainted in one way or another. Your money is worthless in the global economy and natural disasters occurring because of the duplicity and criminality of first world countries you target to move to, will cause entire continents to collapse.
Conventional wisdom is to stay at home and fight to make things better and yes, if you were born in SA, this is your home. Where you belong. The place where you create a legacy and fight against marauding invaders from other countries on the continent and local invaders who have no respect for civil society or human life including a fight against politicians who choose to be corrupt and who need to be countered. Why would you want to emigrate to countries which have their own marauding invaders, are far more intensely captured through migration and inward bound questionable foreign investments than we are in South Africa?
Learn lessons from history including what the values are that you need your children to grow up with.
Cowardice does not sit pleasantly in the human psyche. So don’t be a coward! Show your bravery and grit and get on with it. Enjoy the ride.
Enjoy the Presidents performance at the 2020 SONA.
