Tag: policy uncertainty

Following President Cyril Ramaphosa’s State of the Nation Address (SONA), we have released an analysis of the speech. SA has registered 3.6 million cases of COVID-19 and just over 96,000 deaths to date.

Most African business leaders are more optimistic about the strength of the global economy and their organisations’ ability to grow revenues in the next 12 months than they were a year ago. Although CEOs’ confidence in their own company’s revenue prospects has rebounded, they are anxious, too: policy uncertainty, tax policy, cyber threats and over-regulation are keeping them awake at night.

South Africa has faced many crises before, but the one we are now in has convoluted our collective thinking about what true leadership is all about. The political atmosphere in the country has deepened the leadership question and has resulted in creating a tense and protest-filled environment.

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is meeting again - 21 July 2020 to 23 July 2020 - to discuss policy matters. The central bank lowered interest rates by a cumulative 275 basis points in the year so far, most recently making a 0.5 percentage point cut in lending rates on May 21.

According to the latest Employment Outlook Survey, South African employers report limited hiring intentions for the second quarter of 2020. While 8% of employers forecast an increase in payrolls, 5% anticipate a decrease and 85% expect to make no changes. Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, the overall outlook for South Africa stands at +2%, unchanged from the previous quarter.

As we enter a new decade, CEOs are showing record levels of pessimism in the global economy, with 53% predicting a decline in the rate of economic growth in 2020. This is up from 29% in 2019 and just 5% in 2018 – the highest level of pessimism since we started asking this question in 2012.

According to the latest Employment Outlook Survey, South African employers report soft hiring intentions for the last quarter of the year. While 10% of employers anticipate an increase in payrolls, 6% expect a decrease and 82% forecast no change.