Tag: monetary policy

South Africans should be terrified by the continued discussion of the possible nationalisation of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). While the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) welcome the discussion, and support putting the institution under total control of government, rational individuals should be supporting more independence and autonomy for the SARB, not less.

Small and Medium Enterprises are the cornerstone of the global economy. The 2024 United Nations General Assembly designated June 27 as "Micro, Small, and Medium-sized Enterprises (MSMEs) Day" to raise awareness of their contributions toward achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) - specifically SDG 8 (decent work and economic growth) and SDG 9 (industry, innovation, and infrastructure).

The volatility of the South African Rand (ZAR) against the US Dollar (USD) and other major currencies is a trend that is keeping many South Africans up at night. How well the USD performs and how it impacts the value of the ZAR, is greatly impacted by factors such as the US employment figures, inflation rates and gross domestic product (GDP) data, pronouncements by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), and locally, South Africa’s trade balance, GDP, inflation levels, unemployment figures, and guidance from the South African Reserve Bank about monetary policy.

With an economic growth forecast of only 1.6% over the next three years for South Africa, businesses are facing a tough trading environment, exacerbated by the impact of geopolitical tensions, disruptive new technologies, persistent weather catastrophe threats and failing public infrastructure and services.

2023 is poised to be a year of accelerated change in and for South Africa. As the country heads toward a general election in 2024, a sea-change is on the cards. The African National Congress (ANC) are by all accounts on the point of obtaining below 50% at the voting booth; some estimates have the party even under 45%.

Central banks around the world are hiking interest rates to battle rising inflation. Recessions are now expected in the US, UK and Europe in the next year. Interest rates around the world are rising at an alarming pace, as central banks admit that inflation is becoming more ingrained, rather than just a series of transient shocks.

A 26% increase in headline earnings per share and a robust balance sheet enabled an 81% increase in the interim dividend per share. The South African economy held up relatively well as global economic conditions deteriorated significantly in the first half of 2022.

June was a brutal month for global equities, capping the worst first half of a year since the launch of the MSCI All Country World Index in 1987. For indices with longer track records, the story is worse. In the case of the US S&P500, the first half performance has not been this bad since 1962.

A record sell-off coupled with a shifting economic backdrop mean opportunities in global fixed income markets have appeared. It has been an extraordinary time for bond markets. As an asset class, fixed income is often seen as equities’ boring cousin, particularly over the past decade of low yields. Recent months, however, have been anything but boring, albeit for the wrong reasons.

People are worrying about a global recession and with good reason. But what if the factors driving rising prices are beyond the limits of policymakers’ control? I discuss what central bankers’ next move might be, what markets are pricing in and what the probability of a recession is.