Tag: monetary policy

People are worrying about a global recession and with good reason. But what if the factors driving rising prices are beyond the limits of policymakers’ control? I discuss what central bankers’ next move might be, what markets are pricing in and what the probability of a recession is.

The prolonged Russia-Ukraine war is ushering in a new era of volatility and possible recession for South Africa and the world. When Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana delivered his maiden budget speech in February 2022, little did he know that Russia would invade Ukraine the very next day, immediately changing both the world and South Africa’s economic outlook for 2022 and beyond.

The market lens for the rest of 2022 will be focused on the impact of political and policy miscalculations. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has fully miscalculated the West’s response to his invasion of Ukraine. The speed, strength and unity of global sanctions is bringing about economic collapse in his country.

Markets continued their rally into the fourth quarter of 2021, with South African (SA) equities delivering its strongest calendar year return since 2012 (up 27.1%) and global equities since 2015 (up 28.8% in Rands).

The start of a new year is the perfect time to change old habits and make choices that promote growth and well-being. This isn’t only good advice for life, but also for one’s investments. As we welcome 2022, there may be no better opportunity to look back at how the investment landscape has changed, consider where the biggest opportunities for the next 11 months will come from, and take note of which investment habits you need to shake.

Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) General Secretary Bheki Ntshalintshali’s thought-provoking, in-depth piece advocating the ostensible strengths of the government's localisation plans refers ('Ideologues do the jobless a disservice by turning localisation into a swearword', January 9).

Foreign exchange fluctuations can have a material impact on investment portfolio returns measured in terms of a base currency. We dedicate significant resources into understanding currencies through a range of models, backed by observations from our local teams.

As calm steadily returns after the recent social unrest, analysts are hard at work tallying the cost of the looting and disruption to economic activity. So far, the damage to 2021 growth is estimated at between 0.5 and 1.0 percentage points.

Last month, US headline inflation recorded its biggest single jump in 13 years with a 5% gain from May 2020. In the wake of the global pandemic, rising vehicle prices, flight tickets, car insurance and hotels reflect a recovery in travel and higher oil prices.

A year ago, reality started sinking in that the new coronavirus from Wuhan would not be contained to China. No fewer than 25 countries had confirmed cases, and the first deaths outside China were being reported. On 11 February 2020, the disease caused by the new coronavirus was named COVID-19.