Tag: Johann Els
The Middle East conflict and its market implications
The recent escalation in the Middle East has reintroduced a geopolitical risk premium into global markets. Investors now price in the risk of supply disruptions and wider regional instability. This shift reflects growing uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict.
2020 – a watershed year for economic recovery?
The case for economic recovery out of the deep COVID-19 recession has been given a confidence boost by the Government’s decisive response to the crisis. The praise being showered on President Cyril Ramaphosa’s steps taken to unlock the economy and the economic stimulus packages to address the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic should give the country confidence that we are moving in the right direction.
Reserve Bank cut rates by 100 basis points
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cut rates by another 100 basis points this morning in an inter-meeting move. Rates are now down 225 bps since the start of the year, and down 250bps since July last year.
Moody’s decision to cut South Africa’s credit rating to junk was...
Moody’s cut both the local and foreign currency-denominated debt from Baa3 to Ba1 and retained the negative outlook. Their statement highlighted South Africa’s deteriorating fiscal situation amidst very weak economic growth, saying: 'The key driver behind the rating downgrade to BA1 is the continuing deterioration in fiscal strength and structurally very weak growth.'
COVID-19: the economic impact severe but short-lived
Local investors should stay invested to reap strong future returns. An early decisive response to the COVID-19 threat should contain the spread of the virus in South Africa, but the economic repercussions in the short term will be costly. Local measures to contain the virus will add to an already weak economy and negative global impact.
