Intelligent grids – predicting disruptions beyond the weather

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Intelligent grids

Mark Twain famously said: “If you don’t like the weather, wait five minutes and it will change”. Weather unpredictability has plagued mankind since the dawn of time. Its effects reach every facet of life, including the operation of our electricity distribution networks.

As severe weather moves across a region, it can affect several parts of the grid simultaneously. Moreover, the network must already cope with changing electricity demand and supply, as well as Distributed Energy Resources (DERs). These pressures push the grid close to its limits.

One faulty feeder can trigger a cascading effect. The challenge involves more than identifying an outage. Utilities must establish what happened, determine what else the fault could affect, and identify where they can safely reroute power. They must also decide which field teams to deploy and how quickly they can restore supply. An intelligent grid can help utilities manage these interconnected challenges by improving visibility and supporting faster, more informed decisions.

Indeed, extreme weather has caused several significant power outages globally and in South Africa in recent years. In 2025, Winter Storm Blair left more than 300,000 customers without power across seven US states. Meanwhile, a tornado outbreak that same year cut electricity to more than 230,000 homes and businesses.

Closer to home, South Africa experienced widespread power outages in August 2026 due to severe winter storms. KwaZulu-Natal, the Eastern Cape, Limpopo and the Free State were particularly hard-hit.

From reactive to predictive grid management

The distribution network was built around a relatively predictable model of electricity generation, transmission and consumption. However, energy systems are changing, creating a more decentralised network. Consequently, generation and consumption patterns now vary by location and time of day.

Weather adds another layer of unpredictability. Furthermore, ageing infrastructure compounds these challenges, creating a complex operating environment. An intelligent grid can help utilities navigate this complexity by improving their ability to monitor network conditions and anticipate potential disruptions.

Fortunately, digitalisation offers concrete solutions, and the case for an Advanced Distribution Management System (ADMS) is clear. ADMS provides specialised software capabilities that give utilities a more comprehensive view of their networks. It also supports real-time decision-making.

Ultimately, utilities should move towards an adaptive approach to grid management. This approach enables them to understand current and future network conditions. It also helps them respond to expected and unexpected events safely and efficiently. An intelligent grid supports this transition by combining real-time visibility with predictive insights and coordinated operational responses.

The network as a whole

A fault in one part of the network can have consequences elsewhere. Similarly, a new distributed energy connection may affect network conditions beyond its immediate point of connection. Therefore, utilities need a comprehensive view of the entire distribution network, rather than isolated insights into individual components.

ADMS provides real-time visibility across the network, alongside insights into forecast network conditions. This enables utilities to analyse and optimise the system. They can also run what-if scenarios and conduct planning studies to assess potential impacts before implementing changes.

For example, when an outage occurs, utilities must do more than identify the affected customers. They must also establish the fault’s location and extent. Furthermore, they need to determine how to reconfigure the network safely and coordinate the appropriate response.

In conclusion

Advanced outage management, switching management, and real-time field capabilities can help utilities respond more quickly. Technologies such as Fault Location, Isolation and Service Restoration (FLISR) can also support faster restoration.

ADMS brings these capabilities together within a unified operational platform. Consequently, utilities can respond faster, improve reliability, and make better-informed operational decisions.

By combining these capabilities, an intelligent grid helps utilities strengthen network resilience, manage weather-related disruptions and improve the reliability of electricity supply.


Nishandra Baijnath | Systems Architect | Power Systems | Schneider Electric | mail me |


 



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