Srdjan Todorovic | Head | Political Violence & Hostile Environment Solutions | Allianz Commercial | mail me |
Businesses have ranked political risks and violence as a top 10 global risk for the past three years, according to our Risk Barometer 2025. This demonstrates that soaring civil unrest and protest activity has become a key concern for companies of all sizes.
According to a new report, civil unrest ranks as the biggest concern for more than 50% of company respondents globally. This reflects the fact that incidents are increasing and lasting for longer.
A surge in civil unrest and protest activity
Not including ongoing social unrest in the Balkans and Türkiye, there have been over 800 significant anti-government protests since 2017 in more than 150 countries. Accordingly, there were more than 160 events in 2024 alone. Among these, 18% of protests lasted for more than three months.
Following the “super election year” in 2024, policy changes by governments will continue to be trigger factors for protests and flashpoints in many countries in future. Additionally, any economic hardships that result from tariff wars could also provoke unrest.
In addition, religious and political extremists have increased terrorist attacks. These extremists, motivated by both far-right and left ideologies, also pose a major concern for businesses over the year ahead. Therefore, companies need to adapt to volatile and uncertain geopolitical conditions. This adaptation is essential to avoid negative surprises and mitigate risks.
Political violence remains a top 10 global business risk, according to our customers. This is because people increasingly perceive politics as dominated by populism, blame and division. They also believe politics is driven by geopolitics, nationalism and a changing world order.
In addition, people cite economics affected by mismanagement, corruption and a continually rising disparity between the ‘rich’ and the rest as factors dominating politics.
In light of the above, political violence activity can impact businesses in many ways. It endangers the safety of employees and customers. Moreover, those in the immediate vicinity of unrest can suffer business interruption losses and material damage to property or assets.
Civil unrest is the major concern for businesses
Businesses are more concerned about the disruptive impact of anti-social behavior on their operations than that of any other political violence and terrorism exposure.
The impact of civil unrest or strikes, riots and civil commotion (SRCC) activity also ranks as the top concern in countries such as Colombia, France, South Africa, the UK, and the US. In the top 20 countries for frequency of protest and riot activity around the world during 2024, there were more than 80,000 incidents alone. Among the hotspots were India, US, France, Germany, Türkiye and Spain, according to our research.
It is a view also shared by insurers who have seen the SRCC peril increase in frequency and severity in recent years. Events including riots in Chile and South Africa have contributed to insured losses well in excess of US$10 billion over the past decade. These figures surpass other levels of political violence and terrorism insurance claims.
In certain hotspot territories, losses can rival or surpass those from natural catastrophes. Meanwhile, in others, although the direct impact may be minor, events can still trigger long-lasting changes in the societies they affect.
All kinds of civil unrest and protest activity remain a problem. Contributing factors such as high inflation, wealth inequality, food and fuel prices, climate anxieties and concerns about civil liberties or perceived assaults on democracy have not eased.
Religious and political terrorism on the rise
The increasing frequency of plots and attacks from Islamist groups and inspired individuals, as well as supporters of the far right and far left movements, are among the factors driving the complex global landscape.
A growing concern is the Islamist terrorism threat in Europe. Over the last 12 months, the number of attacks or plots has increased. Terrorist attacks jumped by 63% in the West, with Europe most affected, and attacks doubling to 67.
At the same time, analysis shows there were more than 100 reported terrorism and right-wing extremist incidents during 2024. These incidents were driven primarily by events in the US, followed by Germany.
Meanwhile, far-left extremists are targeting individuals or companies who they see as contributing negatively towards issues such as climate change or inequality.
In conclusion
With soaring civil unrest and protest activity, businesses need to be alive to the shapeshifting nature of political violence risk. They must protect their people and property by ensuring safe and robust business continuity planning is in place in event of an incident.
Companies also need to review their insurance. Property policies may cover political violence claims in some cases. However, specialist protection is also available.
Businesses with multi-country exposures are showing a greater interest in political violence coverage. Furthermore, there is also greater engagement from the SME and mid-corp space about these risks. This signals a true reflection of increasing concern in this segment.
