Tag: geopolitics

Two top trade experts with popular economics podcasts argue for a new way of operating between the biggest economic powers in the world. We used to take trade for granted. However, that is no longer the case. Everything we know about trade has changed. Trump's tariffs have disrupted long-established assumptions and thrown the global trading system into uncertainty.

Investors have a limited edge in predicting geopolitical outcomes. Our value-add lies in assessing the relative economic exposure of different countries. It also lies in judging what the market has priced into different sectors and determining how to allocate risk accordingly within a geopolitical risk investment strategy.

While global geopolitical tensions may feel distant, their financial impact is hitting South Africans closer to home than many realise. From rising fuel prices to mounting inflationary pressure, experts warn consumers about what many now describe as the “unseen tax” on everyday living. In fact, geopolitics drives “unseen tax” in ways that quietly shape household expenses.

South Africa faces two main energy security risks: electricity reliability and diesel dependency. The Strait of Hormuz crisis has shown a critical shift. Diesel is no longer a guaranteed “last line of defence”. If an external shock, such as the Strait of Hormuz closure, occurred during load-shedding, pressure would rise sharply. Diesel availability would tighten. This would affect on-site generators for critical loads such as hospitals and data centres.

African managers and executives often set their sights on multinational contexts. Others expand their companies beyond their home markets. However, they operate in environments where success is not determined by market dynamics alone. International business sits at the intersection of state policy, foreign direct investment, political economy and corporate control.

Despite recent diplomatic peace efforts from the US, the US-Israel war on Iran has now entered its fourth week. As a result, the situation remains extremely volatile. Moreover, ongoing Middle East tensions continue to heighten uncertainty across global markets. As the days pass, the risk of a stagflationary environment increases. In this scenario, low growth and high inflation occur simultaneously.

Escalating geopolitical tensions are reshaping global energy dynamics, and fuel rationing looms as both a local and international concern. The discussion in the video below centres on the growing risk of fuel instability in South Africa, set against a rapidly shifting global oil landscape influenced by conflict in the Middle East and changing policy decisions around Iran’s oil exports.

Geopolitics often feels distant. Many people see it as something that happens far away, involving borders or disputes over natural resources. These events usually take place on the other side of the world. However, the reality is far more personal for the average South African household. This is precisely why geopolitics matters to your pocket.

Two overarching themes are likely to dominate the investing landscape over 2026 and beyond - the unstoppable rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the changing global order. These subjects are complex and dynamic. It is impossible (and unwise) to form a fully-fledged thesis. More important than knowing the terrain is having the right attitude to traverse it.

In the next twenty-five years, Africa’s population is predicted to double in size to 2.5 billion. By 2050, one in four people on earth will be African. This raises a critical question: how can Africa accommodate and benefit from this huge demographic shift? The Invisible People frames this challenge as a defining moment for the continent.