Tag: stagflation
Middle East tensions increase stagflation risk
Despite recent diplomatic peace efforts from the US, the US-Israel war on Iran has now entered its fourth week. As a result, the situation remains extremely volatile. Moreover, ongoing Middle East tensions continue to heighten uncertainty across global markets. As the days pass, the risk of a stagflationary environment increases. In this scenario, low growth and high inflation occur simultaneously.
Gold, geopolitics and de-dollarisation
Gold's long-term fundamentals were already looking positive. By effectively rejecting the US role as reserve currency issuer, President Trump is super-charging these trends. We have long maintained the view that long-run global geopolitical and fiscal trends have the potential to drive a very powerful bull market in gold.
Forecasting is tough – but with Trump it’s almost impossible
Forecasting economic and market variables is inherently difficult. Forecasting is tough. Research suggests that only 23% of professional forecasts prove accurate. Add in US policy uncertainty - President Trump signed a flurry of executive orders on his first day in office. As a result, predicting the outlook for the global economy becomes even more challenging than usual.
