Tag: Sanisha Packirisamy

Committing to maintaining sustainable public finances proves to be challenging amidst a geopolitically tense global environment, less favourable growth in the global economy, and persistent energy and logistics obstacles locally. These factors collectively jeopardise government revenue growth, widen the budget deficit, and increase the country's debt ratio.

Following President Cyril Ramaphosa’s State of the Nation Address (SONA), we have released an analysis of the speech. SA has registered 3.6 million cases of COVID-19 and just over 96,000 deaths to date.

South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana tabled the 25th Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement today, where he emphasised the budget’s focus on navigating the country’s path toward an economic and social recovery.

Global financial markets whipsawed in 2020 in reaction to a devastating COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent decisions taken by governments and policymakers to protect citizens and keep economies afloat. Higher levels of uncertainty were reflected in the initial spike in the CBOE Volatility Index (Vix) in March 2020 before unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus calmed markets during the year. 

Real growth in GDP for the third quarter of 2020 surprised the market consensus to the upside in line with a further relaxation in lockdown restrictions on mobility and activity. Growth surged by 66.1% q/q saar in the quarter and exceeded the November 2020 Reuters Econometer median growth forecast of 34.6% q/q saar.

Moody’s and Fitch downgraded SA’s foreign-currency sovereign rating and its local-currency rating.

The Minister of Finance, Tito Mboweni, delivered his much anticipated Medium-term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) on Wednesday, 28 October 2020. Hard choices and reform implementation are key to achieving five-year stabilisation plan.

The South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept interest rates steady at 3.5% at the scheduled September 2020 interest rate-setting meeting despite downwardly revised growth and inflation views. This decision tied in with the view of 15 out of the 25 analysts surveyed by Reuters, while we were one of the ten favouring a 25-basis point cut.

Real GDP surprised the market consensus to the downside in the second quarter of 2020 as the effects of the pandemic and the associated lockdown measures ate into economic activity. Growth contracted by 51% q/q saar and printed lower than the August 2020 Reuters Econometer median growth forecast of 44.5% p/p saar.

We have prepared a short summary and useful infographic following the president’s announcement of a R500 billion economic and social relief package in his address on Tuesday night 21 April 2020. The source of the remainder of the R500 billion financing outside of the R200 billion loan guarantee scheme, budget reprioritisation of R130 billion and around R100 billion from multilateral sources and global partners