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Middle East tensions increase stagflation risk

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Despite recent diplomatic peace efforts from the US, the US-Israel war on Iran has now entered its fourth week. As a result, the situation remains extremely volatile. Moreover, ongoing Middle East tensions continue to heighten uncertainty across global markets. As the days pass, the risk of a stagflationary environment increases. In this scenario, low growth and high inflation occur simultaneously.

The Middle East conflict and its market implications

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The recent escalation in the Middle East has reintroduced a geopolitical risk premium into global markets. Investors now price in the risk of supply disruptions and wider regional instability. This shift reflects growing uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict.

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