Tag: inflation

The charts below, and others like them, are frequently used online and in presentations by economist and author Stephanie Kelton. She uses them to support the Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) claim that, contrary to conventional wisdom, government deficits are not harmful. Instead, she argues they represent a gain to the economy.

Gold's long-term fundamentals were already looking positive. By effectively rejecting the US role as reserve currency issuer, President Trump is super-charging these trends. We have long maintained the view that long-run global geopolitical and fiscal trends have the potential to drive a very powerful bull market in gold.

The repo rate, inflation and the Reserve Bank’s decisions all play a role in shaping our finances, from savings and loans to monthly payments. Understanding how these factors influence our financial well-being can help us make informed decisions and prepare for economic changes.

Forecasting economic and market variables is inherently difficult. Forecasting is tough. Research suggests that only 23% of professional forecasts prove accurate. Add in US policy uncertainty - President Trump signed a flurry of executive orders on his first day in office. As a result, predicting the outlook for the global economy becomes even more challenging than usual.

The TV licence system is on life support. Less than 20% of South Africans with a licence actually pay. The costs of chasing payments often outweigh the revenue collected. People simply don’t see value in funding a public broadcaster anymore. They have an endless stream of content available elsewhere. That said, the South African Broadcasting Corporation (SABC) still matters.

After the false start of 19 February, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana tabled the 2025 Budget on 12 March. The main tax policy proposals include raising the Value Added Tax (VAT) rate by 0.5% in each of the next two years. This will bring VAT to 16% in 2026/2027. It will be accompanied by no inflationary adjustments to personal income tax brackets, rebates, or medical tax credits.

The shocks, surprises and shortfalls in the initial budget on 19 February 2025 made way for a reworked National Budget. This new budget is marked by cuts, compromises and curveballs. Although Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s first budget attempt was unexpectedly stopped three weeks ago, a higher VAT rate is still on the table.

We note the tabling of the delayed 2025 National Budget. As with previous budgets, the steps announced by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana highlighted the need for higher growth rates in the domestic mining sector and the broader economy.

2024 marked the biggest election year in human history. Over 70 countries held elections, representing more than half the global population. Estimates show that over 80% of incumbent parties lost voter support in 2024 compared to the previous election. This shift made 2024 a significant year for global democracy.

Parliament tabled the 2025 budgets on 19 February 2025, but they were not approved. The budgets proposed a 2% increase in the Value Added Tax (VAT) rate. The proposal suggested raising the VAT rate from 15% to 17%.