Tag: EmergingMarkets

Investors have a limited edge in predicting geopolitical outcomes. Our value-add lies in assessing the relative economic exposure of different countries. It also lies in judging what the market has priced into different sectors and determining how to allocate risk accordingly within a geopolitical risk investment strategy.

As more South African companies expand into African markets, one reality is becoming increasingly clear. Economic growth across the continent is accelerating. However, talent mobility faces significant constraints. Whether entering West, East or Central Africa, companies encounter two recurring challenges.

This year has been marked by significant geopolitical instability. As the conflict in the Middle East continues, South African importers face pressure from three sides. Fuel costs are rising. Supply chains are disrupted. In addition, the Rand, already one of the world’s most volatile emerging market currencies, now carries a war premium on every international transaction.

African managers and executives often set their sights on multinational contexts. Others expand their companies beyond their home markets. However, they operate in environments where success is not determined by market dynamics alone. International business sits at the intersection of state policy, foreign direct investment, political economy and corporate control.

Small retailers are not under-digitised. They are over-apped. POS, stock, payments, loyalty and marketing all sit on different systems, each with its own login, cost and learning curve.

Over short periods, markets can be unpredictable, and 2025 confirmed that reality. We anticipated volatility, and the year delivered it. Few expected stability from the US administration or swift resolutions to geopolitical tensions. Nevertheless, several fiscal and monetary developments surprised markets, both locally and globally. These shifts provide important signals about future direction and potential volatility.