Tag: Citadel Global

As economic and political dynamics shift in 2025, the South African (SA) Rand risks signal that we could be in for a bumpy ride. However, it might not be all downhill. Looking at the major market forces at play, there are top pressures on the Rand in 2025 that will be decisive for the Rand’s performance in the coming year.

The volatility of the South African Rand (ZAR) against the US Dollar (USD) and other major currencies is a trend that is keeping many South Africans up at night. How well the USD performs and how it impacts the value of the ZAR, is greatly impacted by factors such as the US employment figures, inflation rates and gross domestic product (GDP) data, pronouncements by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), and locally, South Africa’s trade balance, GDP, inflation levels, unemployment figures, and guidance from the South African Reserve Bank about monetary policy.

In February this year, South Africa was greylisted by the Paris-based Financial Action Task Force (FATF) because of its failure to comply with its standards and measures to combat illicit financial flows, terrorist funding and potential threats to the integrity of the global financial system. This step is the consequence of the endemic corruption, generally referred to as “state capture” which has long prevailed in the country.

This year has been nothing, if not eventful. We started 2022 with Russian President, Vladimir Putin, declaring war on Ukraine. This event then triggered an energy crisis and has driven inflation, in major economies, to unprecedented levels, along with interest rates. And now, as the year draws to a close, COVID-19 has snuck in again to dominate headlines.

With South Africans learning to live with the current cycle of stage 6 load shedding, many believe the ongoing power cuts to be the antagonist behind the weak Rand. However, according to treasury experts, load shedding is merely a small contributor to a far greater picture.  

South Africa, though not the largest economy among emerging markets, enjoys a prominent position among its peers, and the highly liquid nature of the South African rand has encouraged global investors to use it as a proxy for global growth, commodities, and emerging markets.

With an economy in the doldrums, South Africans are increasingly looking to make use of business and investment opportunities offshore. However, it’s important to note that as a South African resident, you are subject to certain exchange control regulations.