Tag: Schroders

Investors have a limited edge in predicting geopolitical outcomes. Our value-add lies in assessing the relative economic exposure of different countries. It also lies in judging what the market has priced into different sectors and determining how to allocate risk accordingly within a geopolitical risk investment strategy.

There has been a sharp downturn in the price of bullion and gold equities. What has caused it, and where does it leave the outlook for gold from here? The fall in the gold price on October 21, a drop of 5.5%, was among the ten biggest single-day falls for the metal. Gold equities also suffered a big correction of approximately 9%.

Gold's long-term fundamentals were already looking positive. By effectively rejecting the US role as reserve currency issuer, President Trump is super-charging these trends. We have long maintained the view that long-run global geopolitical and fiscal trends have the potential to drive a very powerful bull market in gold.

Forecasting economic and market variables is inherently difficult. Forecasting is tough. Research suggests that only 23% of professional forecasts prove accurate. Add in US policy uncertainty - President Trump signed a flurry of executive orders on his first day in office. As a result, predicting the outlook for the global economy becomes even more challenging than usual.

There is a new sheriff in town. Global investors have been digesting the change in policy direction after President Trump’s return to the White House. In contrast to his first term, actions on the trade front have been a policy priority and the rules of the game are changing.

Private markets are less liquid than public markets. Locking up funds for a significant period is unfamiliar to many private investors. Regulators worldwide are concerned about risks associated with private assets during market stress. A key regulatory focus is on liquidity mismatches in open-ended funds investing in illiquid assets. These mismatches occur when funds allow excessive flexibility on redemptions.

While inflation is moving steadily lower, we believe the secular shifts of deglobalisation, decarbonisation, and demographic change – the "3D Reset" - will keep inflation and interest rates higher for longer. With the added challenge of geopolitical conflicts, many investors are reassessing their private equity allocation. But almost every year since 2008 has involved a crisis for investors in private equity.

Following the events of October last year, the situation in the Middle East has become increasingly volatile. In April, Israeli forces attacked the Iranian consulate in Damascus, killing most of the Quds Force leadership. The Quds Force is part of the Iranian National Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), which deals with Iran’s overseas activities and its relationships with its proxy forces in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq.

Although decarbonising an investment portfolio is a multi-faceted, multi-stage exercise, it needn’t be complicated. Adding the dimension of sustainability – in this case, decarbonisation – to your portfolio construction process does not mean changing your approach entirely.

Climate change poses risks to economies, companies, and investments. It is an important focus for us as active owners of assets on behalf of our clients. Many companies are carefully considering their exposure to climate risk and outlining their decarbonisation ambitions. What role can active ownership play in this, while also protecting and enhancing the value of investments?