Tag: PortfolioManagement

As we settle into the second half of 2026, global market returns continue to reflect themes pulling markets in different directions. There has been an almost unprecedented combination of geopolitical tension, volatile oil prices, persistent inflation and uncertainty over interest rates. Added to this are the extraordinary gains delivered by Artificial Intelligence (AI). These gains have become concentrated in a small number of large companies.

Periods of heightened volatility can make even experienced investors second-guess well-considered decisions. However, the most damaging outcomes often result from a handful of predictable behavioural mistakes. These include panic selling, focusing too heavily on macroeconomic forecasts instead of valuations, chasing recent winners and assuming the future will mirror the past. Understanding these behaviours is essential when investing in volatile markets.

South African bond markets rewarded fixed-income investors with exceptional calendar-year returns in both 2024 and 2025. The All Bond Index (ALBI) returned 17% and 24%, respectively. These returns significantly exceed the norm. Therefore, we anticipated moderating performance in 2026.

Our philosophy has not changed; the environment in which we execute it has. For over two decades, our investment philosophy has been grounded in a simple principle. High-quality companies that can reliably grow dividends tend to deliver more predictable long-term outcomes. This principle remains the foundation of how we invest. However, the environment in which we apply this philosophy has changed.

For South Africans, investing has always been a global game. This is not only because Regulation 28 of the Pension Funds Act has allowed investors to include up to 45% offshore assets in their portfolios for the last three years. It is also because South Africa’s economy and stock market are small compared to the rest of the world. Furthermore, the JSE itself is becoming increasingly global in nature.