Tag: Maarten Ackerman

The Moody’s downgrade of South Africa’s credit rating should have happened long ago. We’ve known for a long time that our fiscal metrics have been unsustainable, so despite the coronavirus, this is unsurprising.

Sparking an immediate celebration in the rand and bond markets, the 2020 Budget Speech ticked all the right boxes for markets, depicting a government that is reform-minded and ready to show its muscles.

Despite various geopolitical and economic challenges at the beginning of 2019, markets managed to deliver very strong returns for the year. And investors will be relieved to see that equity markets look set to start 2020 on a slightly better footing, as many of these uncertainties have been addressed to some extent over 2019.

With GDP up 3.1% in the second quarter of 2019 (seasonally adjusted, annualised) and 0.9% for the year to June 2019, the markets have responded positively. The rand appreciated by some 10 cents on publication of the data and bonds yields declined by about 10 basis points.

With the elections now largely behind us, investors’ focus will shift to President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ability and political will in addressing issues of concern, namely: the composition of cabinet to be announced on the 28th of May, transforming the economy with the promised policy reform and resolving the problem that Eskom poses to South Africa.

The Q4 2018 GDP growth numbers are encouraging in light of the tough environment that we have just emerged from. Given that we came out of a technical recession in 2018, the turnaround to see positive growth for the full year is heartening. And while it may still not be enough to address many of our structural issues, the positive signs are likely to keep the rating agencies at bay.

The cracks may be starting to show in the ten-year equity bull market, but does this mean that the cycle is now over?

It was clear going into this Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) that is was going to be much tougher than previous years, simply because economic growth and tax revenues are so much worse than had been forecast.