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Navigating the polycrisis

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The notion of a polycrisis – various systemic crisis occurring simultaneously and interacting with one another – has been around for a while but has gained renewed traction for obvious reasons.

A first half to forget

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June was a brutal month for global equities, capping the worst first half of a year since the launch of the MSCI All Country World Index in 1987. For indices with longer track records, the story is worse. In the case of the US S&P500, the first half performance has not been this bad since 1962.

Dollars and sense

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It’s been a busy time for the US dollar. On the one hand, it has featured heavily in commentary on the future of the global monetary system. On the other hand, it has surged in foreign exchange markets. In other words, even as many commentators question the future of the dollar as global reserve currency, participants in foreign exchange markets have scrambled to buy more dollars.

Bombs, blood and bonds

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The bigger the military operation, the more sophisticated the financial machinery required to fund it. The Bank of England, today still the UK’s central bank, was created in 1694 as the government’s bank, largely to finance its ongoing wars with France.

Investment ghosts of the past, present and future

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There has certainly been plenty of foolishness, as a new generation of day-traders have pushed meme stocks, special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) and cryptos to ridiculous levels. Battle-hardened investment professionals have not been immune to bouts of irrational exuberance either.

COP 26 – Let’s talk about climate change complexities

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The scientific consensus is that climate change is real and getting worse. The goal for policymakers, activists, business leaders and investors meeting at the United Nation’s COP26 summit in Glasgow is to limit the damage. Specifically, the aim is to keep the increase in average global temperatures to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

Time to evaluate our positions in the past, present and future

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September is Heritage Month in South Africa. As a diverse but also divided society, building a shared view of our heritage is very much a work in process. Nonetheless, all South Africans have an interest in sharing in a more prosperous economy with more jobs and less poverty.

Investment note: the good news edition

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For a country always in need of cheering up, recent news of better-than-expected economic growth was most welcome. StatsSA data showed that the economy grew by 4.6% after inflation in the first quarter on a seasonally adjusted and annualised basis.

Learning the lessons of a year of COVID-19

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A year ago, reality started sinking in that the new coronavirus from Wuhan would not be contained to China. No fewer than 25 countries had confirmed cases, and the first deaths outside China were being reported. On 11 February 2020, the disease caused by the new coronavirus was named COVID-19.

Debt doom or bond boom?

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Last year’s Budget Speech was delivered in front of a full house in the National Assembly. Politicians, journalists and special guests mingled before and after the speech. There were hugs, handshakes and back slaps aplenty. Next week’s version takes place in a world that has completely changed.

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