Tag: inflation

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has opened fault lines between nations which will affect trade relations and investment for years to come. The war in Ukraine is already having a significant effect on inflation and activity in the world economy as commodity prices have soared and supply chains have been disrupted.

As interest rates continue to rise, it is more important than ever to put down a deposit on your new home to keep your monthly bond repayments down. Inflation in South Africa rose to 5.9% in April 2022 and by the end of May, the Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee increased the repo rate by 100 base points to 4.75%.

Having reached the halfway mark of 2022, there’s little doubt that travel is rebounding – and quickly. So much so, that airports around the world are reporting delays, queues and flight disruptions as they struggle to hire (and rehire) staff quickly enough to meet the huge surge in demand.

The notion of a polycrisis – various systemic crisis occurring simultaneously and interacting with one another – has been around for a while but has gained renewed traction for obvious reasons.

June was a brutal month for global equities, capping the worst first half of a year since the launch of the MSCI All Country World Index in 1987. For indices with longer track records, the story is worse. In the case of the US S&P500, the first half performance has not been this bad since 1962.

With South Africans learning to live with the current cycle of stage 6 load shedding, many believe the ongoing power cuts to be the antagonist behind the weak Rand. However, according to treasury experts, load shedding is merely a small contributor to a far greater picture.  

Rising costs of living and high levels of unemployment in an unpredictable economic landscape have turned traditional financial aspirations on their head as people desperately scramble to overcome short-term challenges at the cost of long-term investments.

Businesses should prepare for a rise in civil unrest incidents as the cost of living crisis follows hard on the heels of the COVID-19 pandemic. What can we learn from the protests we saw during the height of the pandemic and what role could social media play in intensifying future disruption?  

A record sell-off coupled with a shifting economic backdrop mean opportunities in global fixed income markets have appeared. It has been an extraordinary time for bond markets. As an asset class, fixed income is often seen as equities’ boring cousin, particularly over the past decade of low yields. Recent months, however, have been anything but boring, albeit for the wrong reasons.

People are worrying about a global recession and with good reason. But what if the factors driving rising prices are beyond the limits of policymakers’ control? I discuss what central bankers’ next move might be, what markets are pricing in and what the probability of a recession is.