Tag: economic growth

Many of us became more comfortable with using technology for everyday purposes like buying groceries, clothing and medication. One aspect of investing that was magnified during the lockdown was the importance of diversification. Introducing different asset classes and geographies into a portfolio can certainly be put down as one of the major lessons from last year.

Global financial markets whipsawed in 2020 in reaction to a devastating COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent decisions taken by governments and policymakers to protect citizens and keep economies afloat. Higher levels of uncertainty were reflected in the initial spike in the CBOE Volatility Index (Vix) in March 2020 before unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus calmed markets during the year. 

In an emerging economy like South Africa, human capital development is central to the survival and growth of the economy. The economic system that is conducted in South Africa is a market driven capitalistic one, whose focus is on maintaining a sound financial system that is globally competitive.

Hindsight, they say, is 20/20 vision. This being the year 2020, it turned out to be truer than ever before. For investors, and all of us really, there was so much about this year that was unpredictable, surprising and shocking.  With 11 months of the year now past, and in our penultimate note for 2020, we can look back at what investors might have known and could have done.

The macro environment has been deteriorating over the past few years and this has been exacerbated by the COVID-19 crisis. As a result, the credit market has been characterised by deteriorating credit quality and credit spreads. The key credit cycle indicators that we look at confirms this market phenomena.

The South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept interest rates steady at 3.5% at the scheduled September 2020 interest rate-setting meeting despite downwardly revised growth and inflation views. This decision tied in with the view of 15 out of the 25 analysts surveyed by Reuters, while we were one of the ten favouring a 25-basis point cut.

The South African economy, like many emerging and developing economies, has high levels of poverty. As with many such countries, there are three primary objectives to reducing poverty, unemployment and inequity. These three objectives take precedence over almost all other goals.

As if the threat of a large-scale outbreak of an infectious disease isn’t enough to worry about, coronavirus has financial implications too. You might have read about the virtual shutdown of industries in some parts of the world and large falls in global stock markets and in the price of commodities such as oil.

It is no secret that entrepreneurship and business creation is the lifeblood of economic growth and innovation. Research out of the United States by the Kauffman Foundation, for example, underscored that entrepreneurship is integral to job creation and economic progress.

Despite the country falling into recession, coupled with a dim economic outlook, it is not all doom and gloom for small businesses. For many small businesses the outlook for the year ahead seems bleak due to a lower forecast for economic growth globally, challenging local trading conditions owing to inconsistent power supply, currency volatility and rising operating costs, amongst several factors. However, opportunities still exist for SMEs who are agile.